Coronavirus Follow Up
Claudewell S. Thomas, MD, MPH, DLFAPA, is an established psychiatrist who is currently retired ,, He received his medical degree in 1956 at SUNY Downstate College of Medicine and specializes in social psychiatry, public health psychiatry, and forensic psychiatry. Dr. Thomas was board certified by the American Board of Psychiatry... more
The number of cases of the Wuhan strain of coronavirus showing up around the world is increasing geometrically. At least 1000 cases are reported, unofficially, because of the tight censorship now being exercised. Wuhan is not just another city in China. It is a showpiece for entertainment and the exemplar of successful state capitalism. For China with the political turmoil of Hong Kong festering, the star of Wuhan should not be going out. In addition, Wuhan is not all that distant geographically. The spread of the disease (perhaps inevitable) to an area once glittering itself, to an area regardable as ravaged by civil domestic war, would be quite a blow to China's prestige.
The virus itself has been analyzed as an RNA virus exchanged between insect and animal vectors originally, but recently leaping to man without the intermediation of an animal or insect vector. The mode, of human to human transfer is important. Contagion by manual contact would lead to relatively slow spread (arithmetic) as in leprosy. Spread through fecal contamination and diarrheal disease would yield spread as in cholera (geometric), but pneumonic spread uncontested by antiviral agents could lead to logarithmic worldwide spread. A la bubonic plague.
It is reasonably certain that an intelligent world response is called for. That same intelligent worldwide response is needed for climate change resultant from global warming, tectonic shifts resulting in quakes, tsunamis, ocean instability, loss of glaciers, increasing ocean salinity, etc.
The role of government is important. It must be that government supplies information to its people. It must also protect borders while deciding on appropriateness of sanctuary designations. With increasing numbers of sick people seeking asylum, such decisions become increasingly important, morally and ecologically.
